Publications

Spatial Interdependence and Instrumental Variable Models. – With Timm Betz and Scott J. Cook. 2018. Conditionally Accepted pending replication at Political Science Research & Methods.

Fiscal Capacity, Income Distribution, and Taxation in Brazilian Municipalities. – With Thiago Silva. 2018. Accepted for Publication at the Journal of Politics.

Principled Imputation Made Simple: Multiple Imputation Using Gaussian Copulas. – With Iavor Bojinov, Shahryar Minhas, Nils W. Metternich, Michael D. Ward, and Alexander Volfovsky. 2018. Accepted for Publication at Sociological Methods & Research.

On the Use and Abuse of Spatial Instruments. – With Timm Betz and Scott J. Cook. 2018. Political Analysis. Forthcoming.

Bayesian Versus Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Treatment Effects in Bivariate Probit Instrumental Variable Models. – With Jacob M. Montgomery and Adriana Crespo-Tenorio. 2018. Political Science Research and Methods. Online Appendix

A Re-Assessment of Reporting Bias in Event-Based Violence Data with Respect to Cell Phone Coverage. – With Jan Pierskalla. 2017. Research & Politics. 4(3). 1-5. Online Appendix

Cabinet Formation and Portfolio Distribution in European Multiparty Systems. – With Josh Cutler, Scott De Marchi, Max Gallop, Michael Laver and Matthias Orlovski. 2016. British Journal of Political Science. 46(1). 31-43. Blog post

Calibrating Ensemble Forecasting Models with Sparse Data in the Social Sciences. – With Jacob M. Montgomery and Michael D. Ward. 2015. International Journal of Forecasting. 31(3). 930-942.

Technology and Collective Action: The Effect of Cell Phone Coverage on Political Violence in Africa. – With Jan Pierskalla. 2013. American Political Science Review. 107(2). 207-244. Online Appendix.

Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction. – With Michael D. Ward, Nils W. Metternich, Cassy Dorff, Max Gallop, Anna Schultz and Simon Weschle. 2013. International Studies Review. 15(4). 473-490.

Ensemble Predictions of the 2012 US Presidential Election. – With Jacob M. Montgomery and Michael D. Ward. 2012. PS: Political Science & Politics. 45(4): 651 – 654.

Improving Predictions Using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging. – With Jacob M. Montgomery and Michael D. Ward. 2012. Political Analysis. 20(3): 271-291.